IDENTIFYING DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: HORIZON SCANNING IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DESIGN
DS 92: Proceedings of the DESIGN 2018 15th International Design Conference
Year: 2018
Editor: Marjanović D., Štorga M., Škec S., Bojčetić N., Pavković N.
Author: Ernstsen, Sidsel Katrine; Thuesen, Christian; Larsen, Laurids Rolighed; Maier, Anja
Series: DESIGN
Section: DESIGN INNOVATION
Page(s): 1833-1844
DOI number: https://doi.org/10.21278/idc.2018.0105
Abstract
Technology development is accelerating, driving disruption. Design is seen as key differentiator in creating innovative offerings but few design methods consider future technologies explicitly. In this article, we explore how a foresight method, namely horizon scanning, may be applied in a design context to anticipate disruption of construction. By means of a 3-step horizon scan, we identify 133 potentially disruptive technologies from across industries. We find that when preparing for disruption, design may benefit from the future-oriented and technology-focused features of horizon scanning.
Keywords: disruption, horizon scanning, technology development, design methods, digital design